Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alleima AB (publ) (0ABJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.55 - $71.46$55.98
Multi-Stage$90.74 - $99.75$95.16
Blended Fair Value$75.57
Current Price$71.25
Upside6.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS201.83%0.00%2.001.400.010.000.000.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--42.74%11,600.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.38%1.97%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)979.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)575.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)404.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.80122.3873.43
Cash Retained (M)404.00404.00404.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.80-122.38-73.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.20281.63330.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.86250.86250.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.831.121.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.831.121.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Fair Value$43.55$55.98$71.46
Upside / Downside-38.88%-21.43%0.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)979.00981.30983.60985.91988.23990.551,020.27
Payout Ratio58.73%64.99%71.24%77.49%83.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)575.00637.71700.72764.02827.61891.50943.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)593.66599.64605.63
Year 2 PV (M)607.25619.55631.98
Year 3 PV (M)616.37635.19654.39
Year 4 PV (M)621.55646.98673.19
Year 5 PV (M)623.28655.32688.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,701.9120,714.8121,768.95
Equity Value (M)22,764.0223,871.5025,022.80
Shares Outstanding (M)250.86250.86250.86
Fair Value$90.74$95.16$99.75
Upside / Downside27.36%33.55%40.00%

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