Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZCZL Industrial Technology Group Company Limited Class H (0564.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$406.47 - $478.90$448.80
Multi-Stage$330.53 - $362.82$346.37
Blended Fair Value$397.58
Current Price$13.56
Upside2,832.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.99%20.50%0.980.760.580.570.280.200.110.030.010.04
YoY Growth--28.03%31.95%1.75%103.47%37.96%79.89%268.12%319.08%-80.02%-75.88%
Dividend Yield--7.94%7.85%8.34%8.07%3.02%7.63%3.45%0.90%0.16%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,287.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)454.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,832.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)857.50535.94321.56
Cash Retained (M)3,832.803,832.803,832.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-857.50-535.94-321.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,975.303,296.863,511.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,780.511,780.511,780.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.671.851.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.671.851.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate-1.39%-1.39%-1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$406.47$448.80$478.90
Upside / Downside2,897.60%3,209.70%3,431.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,287.514,566.194,863.005,179.095,515.735,874.256,050.48
Payout Ratio10.61%26.48%42.36%58.24%74.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)454.711,209.332,060.123,016.414,088.325,286.835,596.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.39%-1.39%-1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,214.851,226.371,237.88
Year 2 PV (M)2,079.002,118.602,158.57
Year 3 PV (M)3,057.973,145.753,235.20
Year 4 PV (M)4,163.594,323.714,488.40
Year 5 PV (M)5,408.775,670.025,941.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)572,578.88600,234.66628,948.88
Equity Value (M)588,503.07616,719.11646,010.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,780.511,780.511,780.51
Fair Value$330.53$346.37$362.82
Upside / Downside2,337.50%2,454.37%2,575.69%

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