Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CGN Power Co., Ltd. (003816.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.01 - $37.00$34.68
Multi-Stage$5.88 - $6.43$6.15
Blended Fair Value$20.41
Current Price$3.62
Upside463.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.71%14.41%0.320.090.080.080.080.350.320.050.070.08
YoY Growth--264.99%3.53%4.98%5.33%-78.04%8.31%607.29%-30.85%-20.25%-0.91%
Dividend Yield--8.75%2.19%2.93%2.93%2.68%11.89%8.90%1.26%1.82%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,406.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,104.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,301.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,881.261,175.79705.47
Cash Retained (M)1,301.381,301.381,301.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,881.26-1,175.79-705.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-579.88125.59595.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50,487.0150,487.0150,487.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$16.01$34.68$37.00
Upside / Downside342.16%857.91%922.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,406.2810,004.0110,639.7111,315.8212,034.8812,799.6413,183.63
Payout Ratio86.16%86.93%87.70%88.47%89.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,104.908,696.679,330.9110,010.6410,739.0811,519.6812,194.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)8,101.618,178.518,255.41
Year 2 PV (M)8,097.698,252.148,408.05
Year 3 PV (M)8,093.158,325.808,562.87
Year 4 PV (M)8,088.018,399.498,719.87
Year 5 PV (M)8,082.278,473.208,879.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)256,506.64268,913.44281,795.74
Equity Value (M)296,969.37310,542.57324,621.04
Shares Outstanding (M)50,487.0150,487.0150,487.01
Fair Value$5.88$6.15$6.43
Upside / Downside62.49%69.92%77.62%

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