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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. (003013.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.29 - $271.53$254.46
Multi-Stage$41.01 - $44.89$42.91
Blended Fair Value$148.69
Current Price$15.31
Upside871.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.58%0.00%0.530.470.400.670.000.220.320.440.000.00
YoY Growth--12.73%15.58%-39.63%0.00%-100.00%-30.47%-26.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.46%3.12%2.18%3.83%0.00%1.16%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)542.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)204.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)337.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.4267.7640.66
Cash Retained (M)337.60337.60337.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.42-67.76-40.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.19269.84296.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.04397.04397.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.680.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.680.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.29$254.46$271.53
Upside / Downside718.33%1,562.06%1,673.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)542.09577.33614.85654.82697.38742.71764.99
Payout Ratio37.72%48.18%58.63%69.09%79.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)204.49278.14360.51452.41554.73668.44707.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)258.91261.36263.82
Year 2 PV (M)312.37318.32324.33
Year 3 PV (M)364.90375.37386.05
Year 4 PV (M)416.49432.50448.98
Year 5 PV (M)467.16489.72513.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,461.2915,159.7815,885.00
Equity Value (M)16,281.1217,037.0717,821.32
Shares Outstanding (M)397.04397.04397.04
Fair Value$41.01$42.91$44.89
Upside / Downside167.84%180.27%193.18%

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