Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing ZZNode Technologies Co., Ltd. (003007.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.67 - $2.37$2.02
Multi-Stage$2.55 - $2.80$2.67
Blended Fair Value$2.35
Current Price$34.42
Upside-93.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.45%0.00%0.200.010.000.310.000.290.290.300.240.00
YoY Growth--1,941.93%10,497.71%-99.97%139,284.96%-99.92%-0.03%-2.08%25.29%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.03%0.00%1.24%0.00%1.12%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.233.271.96
Cash Retained (M)18.7218.7218.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.23-3.27-1.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.5015.4616.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.55103.55103.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.67$2.02$2.37
Upside / Downside-95.15%-94.14%-93.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.1325.8725.6125.3525.1024.8525.59
Payout Ratio28.35%40.68%53.01%65.34%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.4110.5213.5716.5719.4922.3623.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9.489.589.68
Year 2 PV (M)11.0211.2511.48
Year 3 PV (M)12.1212.5012.88
Year 4 PV (M)12.8613.3913.94
Year 5 PV (M)13.2913.9814.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)205.55216.25227.39
Equity Value (M)264.32276.95290.07
Shares Outstanding (M)103.55103.55103.55
Fair Value$2.55$2.67$2.80
Upside / Downside-92.58%-92.23%-91.86%

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