Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chang Lan Electric Technology Co.,Ltd. (002879.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.13 - $53.18$49.83
Multi-Stage$31.10 - $34.12$32.58
Blended Fair Value$41.21
Current Price$17.79
Upside131.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.39%14.30%0.240.150.210.210.190.200.110.070.110.06
YoY Growth--65.31%-30.38%0.66%9.52%-2.30%86.67%60.80%-41.00%101.77%-14.08%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.05%1.30%1.34%1.30%1.21%0.59%0.28%0.60%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.506.563.94
Cash Retained (M)13.7513.7513.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.50-6.56-3.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.257.199.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.39196.39196.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.13$49.83$53.18
Upside / Downside153.70%180.12%198.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.5155.9259.5663.4367.5571.9474.10
Payout Ratio73.81%77.05%80.29%83.52%86.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.7643.0947.8252.9858.6164.7568.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.7742.1642.56
Year 2 PV (M)44.9345.7846.65
Year 3 PV (M)48.2549.6451.05
Year 4 PV (M)51.7453.7355.78
Year 5 PV (M)55.4158.0860.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,865.576,148.886,443.03
Equity Value (M)6,107.676,398.286,699.93
Shares Outstanding (M)196.39196.39196.39
Fair Value$31.10$32.58$34.12
Upside / Downside74.81%83.13%91.77%

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