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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou KDT Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002833.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.57 - $185.11$173.47
Multi-Stage$27.64 - $30.21$28.90
Blended Fair Value$101.19
Current Price$16.67
Upside507.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS55.74%31.66%0.911.000.380.410.200.100.170.050.200.04
YoY Growth---9.53%164.83%-7.50%106.43%100.24%-41.77%243.83%-74.90%457.63%-39.03%
Dividend Yield--4.86%4.99%2.16%2.54%0.67%0.84%1.09%0.29%1.11%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)401.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)299.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.2750.1730.10
Cash Retained (M)102.30102.30102.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.27-50.17-30.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0352.1372.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.19431.19431.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.57$173.47$185.11
Upside / Downside353.31%940.63%1,010.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)401.34427.43455.21484.80516.31549.87566.37
Payout Ratio74.51%77.61%80.71%83.80%86.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)299.04331.72367.38406.28448.69494.88523.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.44311.36314.28
Year 2 PV (M)317.62323.67329.77
Year 3 PV (M)326.59335.97345.52
Year 4 PV (M)335.36348.26361.52
Year 5 PV (M)343.92360.54377.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,286.0210,782.8311,298.67
Equity Value (M)11,917.9412,462.6213,027.55
Shares Outstanding (M)431.19431.19431.19
Fair Value$27.64$28.90$30.21
Upside / Downside65.81%73.38%81.24%

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