Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co., Ltd. (002830.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.04 - $55.46$51.96
Multi-Stage$31.96 - $35.16$33.53
Blended Fair Value$42.74
Current Price$16.98
Upside151.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.25%7.77%0.230.110.140.110.120.150.110.120.100.11
YoY Growth--98.21%-20.00%25.00%-7.69%-18.75%33.33%-3.88%14.81%-3.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%0.96%1.11%0.89%1.04%1.22%0.64%0.58%0.32%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.105.063.04
Cash Retained (M)7.577.577.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.10-5.06-3.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.532.514.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.44140.44140.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$47.04$51.96$55.46
Upside / Downside177.05%206.00%226.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4941.7042.9544.2345.5646.9248.33
Payout Ratio81.30%83.04%84.78%86.52%88.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.9234.6336.4138.2740.2142.2344.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3634.7035.03
Year 2 PV (M)35.8536.5637.27
Year 3 PV (M)37.3938.5139.64
Year 4 PV (M)38.9940.5442.14
Year 5 PV (M)40.6342.6644.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,301.134,516.164,739.70
Equity Value (M)4,488.364,709.124,938.55
Shares Outstanding (M)140.44140.44140.44
Fair Value$31.96$33.53$35.16
Upside / Downside88.21%97.47%107.09%

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