Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Huafeng New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002806.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.36 - $18.33$11.04
Multi-Stage$5.10 - $5.58$5.34
Blended Fair Value$8.19
Current Price$11.75
Upside-30.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.78%2.84%0.070.050.000.050.060.070.050.040.010.04
YoY Growth--45.21%2,454.95%-96.17%-23.06%-4.79%31.69%37.11%538.42%-86.40%-18.87%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.50%0.02%0.44%0.77%0.58%0.25%0.21%0.02%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.068.795.27
Cash Retained (M)56.9456.9456.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.06-8.79-5.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8848.1551.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.23212.23212.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.36$11.04$18.33
Upside / Downside-37.33%-6.06%56.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.3074.8779.7484.9290.4496.3299.21
Payout Ratio19.01%33.20%47.40%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.3624.8637.8052.3168.5686.6991.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.5322.7522.96
Year 2 PV (M)31.0531.6432.24
Year 3 PV (M)38.9540.0741.21
Year 4 PV (M)46.2648.0449.87
Year 5 PV (M)53.0255.5858.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)891.38934.43979.13
Equity Value (M)1,083.191,132.511,183.65
Shares Outstanding (M)212.23212.23212.23
Fair Value$5.10$5.34$5.58
Upside / Downside-56.56%-54.58%-52.53%

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