Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software.Co.,Ltd (002777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.24 - $3.40$2.78
Multi-Stage$3.14 - $3.43$3.28
Blended Fair Value$3.03
Current Price$18.99
Upside-84.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.58%1.83%0.130.100.160.120.110.110.110.100.100.15
YoY Growth--20.00%-35.00%33.33%5.00%4.00%0.00%7.84%0.00%-33.33%46.78%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.46%0.57%0.81%0.79%0.52%0.66%0.63%0.62%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4512.157.29
Cash Retained (M)34.7534.7534.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.45-12.15-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3022.6027.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$2.24$2.78$3.40
Upside / Downside-88.21%-85.34%-82.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2498.77100.33101.91103.52105.15108.31
Payout Ratio64.26%69.41%74.56%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.4868.5574.8081.2387.8494.64100.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)61.9762.5963.21
Year 2 PV (M)61.1362.3563.58
Year 3 PV (M)60.0161.8263.66
Year 4 PV (M)58.6661.0363.47
Year 5 PV (M)57.1460.0363.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)926.24973.211,022.07
Equity Value (M)1,225.151,281.031,339.04
Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
Fair Value$3.14$3.28$3.43
Upside / Downside-83.47%-82.72%-81.94%

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