Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Valiant Co.,Ltd (002643.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.01 - $55.82$45.20
Multi-Stage$7.08 - $7.74$7.40
Blended Fair Value$26.30
Current Price$13.75
Upside91.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.33%20.73%0.360.300.260.200.200.180.150.140.110.07
YoY Growth--18.97%15.67%27.28%0.49%15.91%15.03%9.29%24.83%66.67%23.30%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.17%1.51%1.13%1.13%1.38%1.18%1.25%0.81%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)255.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.1932.0019.20
Cash Retained (M)128.53128.53128.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.19-32.00-19.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.3496.53109.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.99911.99911.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.01$45.20$55.82
Upside / Downside9.13%228.75%305.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)255.97272.60290.32309.20329.29350.70361.22
Payout Ratio49.79%57.83%65.87%73.91%81.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.44157.65191.24228.54269.88315.63334.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.84147.22148.61
Year 2 PV (M)163.68166.79169.94
Year 3 PV (M)180.95186.15191.44
Year 4 PV (M)197.68205.29213.11
Year 5 PV (M)213.88224.21234.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,551.375,819.506,097.90
Equity Value (M)6,453.406,749.167,055.93
Shares Outstanding (M)911.99911.99911.99
Fair Value$7.08$7.40$7.74
Upside / Downside-48.54%-46.18%-43.73%

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