Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. (002627.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.04 - $1.55$1.28
Multi-Stage$2.59 - $2.84$2.71
Blended Fair Value$2.00
Current Price$6.01
Upside-66.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.04%11.55%0.110.020.100.040.050.070.040.030.030.04
YoY Growth--504.09%-81.95%157.44%-15.00%-29.25%70.00%38.67%0.00%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%0.35%1.76%0.54%0.82%1.25%0.81%0.44%0.37%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3011.446.86
Cash Retained (M)15.5315.5315.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.30-11.44-6.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.774.098.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Fair Value$1.04$1.28$1.55
Upside / Downside-82.71%-78.65%-74.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.5289.6987.8986.1384.4182.7285.20
Payout Ratio83.03%84.43%85.82%87.21%88.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.9975.7275.4375.1274.7974.4578.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)70.3671.0971.81
Year 2 PV (M)65.1366.4867.85
Year 3 PV (M)60.2862.1664.08
Year 4 PV (M)55.7758.1060.51
Year 5 PV (M)51.5954.3057.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,553.831,635.601,720.77
Equity Value (M)1,856.961,947.742,042.16
Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
Fair Value$2.59$2.71$2.84
Upside / Downside-56.96%-54.86%-52.67%

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