Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.96 - $19.57$14.58
Multi-Stage$8.52 - $9.29$8.90
Blended Fair Value$11.74
Current Price$17.90
Upside-34.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.53%19.75%0.110.080.130.100.140.540.200.100.480.53
YoY Growth--27.66%-33.65%31.60%-32.99%-73.24%162.92%98.20%-78.53%-9.65%2,901.33%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.98%1.14%1.30%1.56%3.07%0.82%0.42%1.69%1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,143.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)172.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)970.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228.63142.8985.74
Cash Retained (M)970.35970.35970.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-228.63-142.89-85.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)741.73827.46884.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,498.861,498.861,498.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate11.38%11.38%11.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.96$14.58$19.57
Upside / Downside-38.79%-18.56%9.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,143.141,217.441,296.571,380.851,470.611,566.201,613.18
Payout Ratio15.11%30.09%45.07%60.05%75.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)172.78366.35584.35829.141,103.291,409.581,492.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.38%11.38%11.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)325.84328.93332.02
Year 2 PV (M)462.28471.08479.97
Year 3 PV (M)583.41600.16617.22
Year 4 PV (M)690.48717.03744.34
Year 5 PV (M)784.62822.52861.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,917.5210,396.5410,893.90
Equity Value (M)12,764.1513,336.2613,929.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,498.861,498.861,498.86
Fair Value$8.52$8.90$9.29
Upside / Downside-52.42%-50.29%-48.08%

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