Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd. (002299.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.25 - $90.36$47.91
Multi-Stage$33.64 - $36.90$35.24
Blended Fair Value$41.57
Current Price$18.03
Upside130.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.21%8.45%0.470.200.301.112.511.000.180.450.210.25
YoY Growth--132.33%-33.26%-72.86%-55.89%150.40%465.67%-60.55%116.84%-16.20%19.37%
Dividend Yield--3.10%1.21%1.22%5.58%9.74%4.24%0.68%3.24%1.11%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,500.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)595.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)904.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)300.09187.56112.54
Cash Retained (M)904.89904.89904.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-300.09-187.56-112.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)604.80717.33792.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,237.321,237.321,237.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.580.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.580.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Fair Value$30.25$47.91$90.36
Upside / Downside67.78%165.72%401.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,500.471,560.571,623.081,688.101,755.711,826.041,880.82
Payout Ratio39.69%49.75%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)595.58776.45970.861,179.591,403.491,643.441,739.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)723.35730.37737.40
Year 2 PV (M)842.61859.05875.64
Year 3 PV (M)953.75981.801,010.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,057.171,098.831,141.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,153.251,210.331,269.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,894.4238,720.4340,618.03
Equity Value (M)41,624.5543,600.8045,652.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,237.321,237.321,237.32
Fair Value$33.64$35.24$36.90
Upside / Downside86.58%95.44%104.64%

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