Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lianhe Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. (002250.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.18 - $6.54$5.27
Multi-Stage$6.41 - $7.04$6.72
Blended Fair Value$5.99
Current Price$10.96
Upside-45.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.89%1.23%0.160.290.140.160.050.150.200.170.170.17
YoY Growth---44.83%114.82%-13.49%208.87%-65.32%-25.58%14.49%-0.94%0.08%21.88%
Dividend Yield--2.33%4.75%0.96%1.15%0.21%1.05%1.83%1.63%1.10%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2948.3128.98
Cash Retained (M)279.31279.31279.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.29-48.31-28.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.02231.00250.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)905.41905.41905.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate-0.02%0.98%1.98%
Fair Value$4.18$5.27$6.54
Upside / Downside-61.83%-51.94%-40.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.46390.26394.11397.99401.91405.86418.04
Payout Ratio27.73%40.18%52.64%65.09%77.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.15156.81207.44259.05311.66365.28386.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate-0.02%0.98%1.98%
Year 1 PV (M)143.56145.00146.43
Year 2 PV (M)173.87177.37180.90
Year 3 PV (M)198.79204.82210.96
Year 4 PV (M)218.96227.85237.01
Year 5 PV (M)234.95246.94259.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,834.065,080.695,337.28
Equity Value (M)5,804.206,082.666,371.99
Shares Outstanding (M)905.41905.41905.41
Fair Value$6.41$6.72$7.04
Upside / Downside-41.51%-38.70%-35.79%

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