Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Corp. (002166.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.41 - $35.06$32.86
Multi-Stage$5.63 - $6.15$5.88
Blended Fair Value$19.37
Current Price$7.93
Upside144.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.64%18.28%0.250.140.040.070.060.060.040.040.060.03
YoY Growth--79.10%276.11%-48.71%24.07%-7.76%47.43%17.08%-33.00%72.84%-32.18%
Dividend Yield--3.24%1.83%0.40%0.55%0.74%0.83%0.58%0.42%0.53%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.3616.479.88
Cash Retained (M)27.3027.3027.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.36-16.47-9.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.9510.8317.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)747.47747.47747.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.41$32.86$35.06
Upside / Downside132.17%314.36%342.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.78140.35149.47159.19169.53180.55185.97
Payout Ratio79.28%81.42%83.57%85.71%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.48114.28124.91136.44148.95162.50172.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.49107.50108.51
Year 2 PV (M)108.46110.53112.61
Year 3 PV (M)110.40113.57116.80
Year 4 PV (M)112.30116.62121.06
Year 5 PV (M)114.16119.68125.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,653.163,829.604,012.81
Equity Value (M)4,204.964,397.494,597.18
Shares Outstanding (M)747.47747.47747.47
Fair Value$5.63$5.88$6.15
Upside / Downside-29.06%-25.81%-22.44%

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