Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Leo Group Co., Ltd. (002131.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.21 - $16.74$15.69
Multi-Stage$9.85 - $10.80$10.32
Blended Fair Value$13.00
Current Price$5.64
Upside130.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.91%20.26%0.050.010.010.040.010.020.030.020.010.01
YoY Growth--417.92%21.48%-78.53%173.54%-14.38%-49.79%40.83%58.80%49.75%18.91%
Dividend Yield--1.38%0.42%0.33%1.76%0.46%0.43%1.33%0.79%0.34%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)489.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)255.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)233.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.8361.1436.69
Cash Retained (M)233.73233.73233.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.83-61.14-36.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.90172.59197.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,809.555,809.555,809.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.21$15.69$16.74
Upside / Downside152.00%178.24%196.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)489.16520.95554.81590.88629.28670.19690.29
Payout Ratio52.22%59.77%67.33%74.89%82.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)255.42311.39373.56442.49518.80603.17638.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)302.41305.28308.15
Year 2 PV (M)352.33359.04365.81
Year 3 PV (M)405.31416.95428.80
Year 4 PV (M)461.51479.26497.52
Year 5 PV (M)521.10546.26572.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,163.7957,828.2260,594.62
Equity Value (M)57,206.4559,935.0162,767.30
Shares Outstanding (M)5,809.555,809.555,809.55
Fair Value$9.85$10.32$10.80
Upside / Downside74.59%82.92%91.56%

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