Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yalian Machinery Co Ltd (001395.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.00 - $145.21$81.86
Multi-Stage$196.66 - $217.30$206.77
Blended Fair Value$144.32
Current Price$49.39
Upside192.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.790.010.162.340.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.46%6,011.29%-91.74%-93.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%1.59%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6521.0312.62
Cash Retained (M)117.88117.88117.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.65-21.03-12.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.2396.85105.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$53.00$81.86$145.21
Upside / Downside7.30%65.74%194.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.24166.56164.90163.25161.61160.00164.80
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.97%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.3769.8788.98107.70126.04144.00152.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)68.1468.8369.53
Year 2 PV (M)84.6186.3588.10
Year 3 PV (M)99.87102.96106.11
Year 4 PV (M)113.97118.69123.56
Year 5 PV (M)126.97133.59140.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,441.6414,141.5714,870.37
Equity Value (M)13,935.2014,651.9915,398.14
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
Fair Value$196.66$206.77$217.30
Upside / Downside298.18%318.66%339.98%

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