Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen KTC Technology Co., Ltd. (001308.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.04 - $24.07$18.38
Multi-Stage$20.41 - $22.42$21.40
Blended Fair Value$19.89
Current Price$23.28
Upside-14.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS16.01%0.00%0.610.660.460.390.390.290.110.000.000.00
YoY Growth---7.49%43.77%17.39%-0.32%35.00%164.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%2.48%1.57%1.57%1.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)778.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)649.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.6197.2658.36
Cash Retained (M)649.41649.41649.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.61-97.26-58.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)493.80552.15591.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)698.83698.83698.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate1.00%2.00%3.00%
Fair Value$14.04$18.38$24.07
Upside / Downside-39.69%-21.06%3.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)778.07793.66809.57825.79842.35859.23885.01
Payout Ratio16.54%31.23%45.92%60.61%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.66247.85371.77500.55634.35773.31818.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate1.00%2.00%3.00%
Year 1 PV (M)228.48230.75233.01
Year 2 PV (M)315.94322.23328.58
Year 3 PV (M)392.15403.92415.91
Year 4 PV (M)458.15476.56495.53
Year 5 PV (M)514.87540.87567.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,354.5012,978.3113,627.07
Equity Value (M)14,264.1014,952.6315,668.00
Shares Outstanding (M)698.83698.83698.83
Fair Value$20.41$21.40$22.42
Upside / Downside-12.32%-8.09%-3.69%

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