Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. (000837.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.32 - $0.46$0.39
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.57$0.54
Blended Fair Value$0.46
Current Price$14.02
Upside-96.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.91%-11.99%0.030.060.040.060.100.100.080.080.060.06
YoY Growth---56.75%53.80%-33.51%-38.35%6.52%15.91%0.97%29.17%8.66%-41.54%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.67%0.39%0.79%1.50%2.63%1.53%1.43%0.64%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.035.653.39
Cash Retained (M)29.5829.5829.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.03-5.65-3.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.5423.9326.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.121,007.121,007.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.32$0.39$0.46
Upside / Downside-97.74%-97.25%-96.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.1744.7244.2743.8343.3942.9644.24
Payout Ratio34.52%45.62%56.71%67.81%78.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.5920.4025.1129.7234.2438.6640.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.5118.7018.89
Year 2 PV (M)20.6821.1021.53
Year 3 PV (M)22.2122.9023.60
Year 4 PV (M)23.2224.1825.17
Year 5 PV (M)23.7925.0326.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)413.95435.51457.95
Equity Value (M)522.36547.41573.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.121,007.121,007.12
Fair Value$0.52$0.54$0.57
Upside / Downside-96.30%-96.12%-95.94%

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