Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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GEPIC Energy Development Co., Ltd. (000791.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.43 - $159.86$149.81
Multi-Stage$23.76 - $26.00$24.86
Blended Fair Value$87.34
Current Price$6.44
Upside1,256.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.41%2.14%0.240.150.150.190.190.180.200.200.210.26
YoY Growth--58.52%3.35%-23.62%-0.98%10.10%-13.54%3.03%-7.21%-19.36%35.85%
Dividend Yield--3.67%2.62%2.88%3.26%3.85%5.43%4.30%3.99%2.46%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,607.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,211.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,395.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)521.44325.90195.54
Cash Retained (M)1,395.541,395.541,395.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-521.44-325.90-195.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)874.101,069.641,200.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,243.583,243.583,243.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.43$149.81$159.86
Upside / Downside962.51%2,226.23%2,382.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,607.212,776.672,957.163,149.373,354.083,572.103,679.26
Payout Ratio46.47%55.18%63.88%72.59%81.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,211.671,532.141,889.162,286.112,726.693,214.893,403.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,425.241,438.751,452.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,634.721,665.861,697.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,840.191,893.011,946.84
Year 4 PV (M)2,041.682,120.202,200.96
Year 5 PV (M)2,239.272,347.432,459.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,894.6271,173.9674,578.80
Equity Value (M)77,075.7280,639.2184,335.87
Shares Outstanding (M)3,243.583,243.583,243.58
Fair Value$23.76$24.86$26.00
Upside / Downside268.98%286.04%303.74%

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