Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. (000750.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.85 - $3.18$2.42
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.58$3.41
Blended Fair Value$2.92
Current Price$4.55
Upside-35.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.94%14.49%0.090.120.100.180.150.140.170.150.130.05
YoY Growth---22.42%17.77%-45.59%22.75%8.35%-16.03%9.41%13.26%143.35%131.21%
Dividend Yield--2.28%3.49%2.95%4.93%3.36%3.17%2.92%3.80%2.29%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)949.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)376.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)572.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.91118.6971.22
Cash Retained (M)572.59572.59572.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.91-118.69-71.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)382.68453.89501.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,530.036,530.036,530.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate0.27%1.27%2.27%
Fair Value$1.85$2.42$3.18
Upside / Downside-59.45%-46.79%-30.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)949.55961.65973.90986.31998.871,011.601,041.95
Payout Ratio39.70%49.76%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)376.96478.51582.58689.23798.50910.44963.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate0.27%1.27%2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)444.47448.90453.33
Year 2 PV (M)502.64512.71522.89
Year 3 PV (M)552.34569.03586.06
Year 4 PV (M)594.39618.45643.25
Year 5 PV (M)629.50661.52694.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,531.0119,473.6420,454.25
Equity Value (M)21,254.3422,284.2623,354.60
Shares Outstanding (M)6,530.036,530.036,530.03
Fair Value$3.25$3.41$3.58
Upside / Downside-28.46%-25.00%-21.40%

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