Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. (000708.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.27 - $216.52$202.91
Multi-Stage$33.82 - $37.00$35.38
Blended Fair Value$119.14
Current Price$13.62
Upside774.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.52%43.69%0.720.891.390.820.860.860.710.020.010.02
YoY Growth---18.99%-36.21%69.90%-4.52%-0.29%21.24%3,452.04%41.47%-32.88%9.75%
Dividend Yield--5.83%5.95%7.83%4.11%3.25%5.83%9.19%0.33%0.18%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,619.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,165.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,454.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,123.96702.48421.49
Cash Retained (M)2,454.212,454.212,454.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,123.96-702.48-421.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,330.251,751.742,032.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,161.925,161.925,161.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.27$202.91$216.52
Upside / Downside694.94%1,389.78%1,489.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,619.825,985.106,374.146,788.457,229.707,699.637,930.62
Payout Ratio56.33%63.06%69.80%76.53%83.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,165.603,774.414,448.995,195.326,019.886,929.677,335.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,515.773,549.093,582.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,860.143,933.674,007.88
Year 3 PV (M)4,198.794,319.334,442.14
Year 4 PV (M)4,531.804,706.084,885.34
Year 5 PV (M)4,859.225,093.925,337.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,613.43161,033.02168,736.57
Equity Value (M)174,579.15182,635.10190,991.95
Shares Outstanding (M)5,161.925,161.925,161.92
Fair Value$33.82$35.38$37.00
Upside / Downside148.32%159.77%171.66%

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