Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JiaoZuo WanFang Aluminum Manufacturing Co., Ltd (000612.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.33 - $159.48$149.44
Multi-Stage$77.62 - $85.28$81.38
Blended Fair Value$115.41
Current Price$8.64
Upside1,235.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.18%2.23%0.160.120.140.090.060.070.150.080.360.12
YoY Growth--39.35%-15.89%45.06%52.63%-14.84%-50.34%89.31%-78.51%192.41%-4.48%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.88%2.51%1.51%0.75%1.99%2.72%1.05%3.77%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)966.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)798.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.33120.8372.50
Cash Retained (M)798.45798.45798.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.33-120.83-72.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)605.12677.62725.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,192.071,192.071,192.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$135.33$149.44$159.48
Upside / Downside1,466.36%1,629.63%1,745.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)966.641,017.961,072.011,128.941,188.881,252.011,289.57
Payout Ratio17.40%31.92%46.44%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.18324.92497.84688.19897.361,126.811,192.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)309.34312.30315.27
Year 2 PV (M)451.22459.91468.68
Year 3 PV (M)593.82611.07628.64
Year 4 PV (M)737.16765.84795.35
Year 5 PV (M)881.24924.30969.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,556.5293,932.4498,477.76
Equity Value (M)92,529.3097,005.86101,654.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,192.071,192.071,192.07
Fair Value$77.62$81.38$85.28
Upside / Downside798.39%841.85%886.99%

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