Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beibu Gulf Port Co., Ltd. (000582.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.33 - $50.67$22.47
Multi-Stage$12.70 - $13.91$13.30
Blended Fair Value$17.88
Current Price$8.42
Upside112.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.23%2.29%0.480.130.140.130.120.080.070.100.030.03
YoY Growth--265.58%-5.99%7.90%5.09%54.71%16.58%-29.18%280.64%-1.28%-93.30%
Dividend Yield--5.64%1.63%1.84%1.72%1.16%0.87%0.71%1.12%0.19%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,091.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)666.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)425.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.37136.4881.89
Cash Retained (M)425.14425.14425.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.37-136.48-81.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.77288.65343.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,343.242,343.242,343.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.61%4.61%5.61%
Fair Value$13.33$22.47$50.67
Upside / Downside58.27%166.84%501.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,091.851,142.181,194.821,249.891,307.501,367.771,408.80
Payout Ratio61.06%66.85%72.64%78.43%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)666.71763.55867.89980.231,101.081,230.991,303.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.61%4.61%5.61%
Year 1 PV (M)710.04716.90723.75
Year 2 PV (M)750.52765.08779.77
Year 3 PV (M)788.27811.31834.80
Year 4 PV (M)823.40855.66888.85
Year 5 PV (M)856.05898.16941.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,836.9527,108.1028,428.79
Equity Value (M)29,765.2331,155.2032,597.89
Shares Outstanding (M)2,343.242,343.242,343.24
Fair Value$12.70$13.30$13.91
Upside / Downside50.86%57.91%65.22%

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