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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAIO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.00 - $107.17$81.42
Multi-Stage$67.48 - $73.87$70.62
Blended Fair Value$76.02
Current Price$166.86
Upside-54.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.38%4.81%1.181.161.251.151.101.101.070.970.970.35
YoY Growth--1.44%-6.72%8.88%3.91%0.03%2.67%10.52%0.03%175.23%-52.18%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.72%4.46%5.21%4.58%15.75%7.33%7.14%7.63%4.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)487.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.5960.9936.60
Cash Retained (M)364.88364.88364.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.59-60.99-36.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)267.29303.88328.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.95102.95102.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.602.953.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.602.953.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.794.154.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Fair Value$62.00$81.42$107.17
Upside / Downside-62.84%-51.21%-35.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)487.95506.54525.84545.88566.68588.27605.92
Payout Ratio25.22%38.18%51.13%64.09%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.07193.39268.88349.85436.60529.45560.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)175.55177.26178.97
Year 2 PV (M)221.58225.91230.28
Year 3 PV (M)261.71269.42277.28
Year 4 PV (M)296.48308.19320.23
Year 5 PV (M)326.38342.56359.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,665.895,946.856,238.85
Equity Value (M)6,947.587,270.197,605.00
Shares Outstanding (M)102.95102.95102.95
Fair Value$67.48$70.62$73.87
Upside / Downside-59.56%-57.68%-55.73%

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