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Corporación Moctezuma, S.A.B. de C.V. (CMOCTEZ.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$746.16 - $1,434.23$1,344.08
Multi-Stage$228.18 - $249.54$238.67
Blended Fair Value$791.37
Current Price$82.00
Upside865.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.64%9.29%5.024.034.084.104.114.865.475.164.132.06
YoY Growth--24.49%-1.22%-0.45%-0.26%-15.44%-11.18%6.00%25.00%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.21%5.37%7.10%6.45%6.52%8.72%9.16%7.06%6.45%3.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,151.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,269.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,230.27768.92461.35
Cash Retained (M)1,881.531,881.531,881.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,230.27-768.92-461.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)651.261,112.611,420.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
LTM Dividend per Share5.015.015.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.776.316.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$746.16$1,344.08$1,434.23
Upside / Downside809.95%1,539.12%1,649.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,151.356,551.186,977.017,430.527,913.508,427.888,680.71
Payout Ratio69.41%73.53%77.65%81.77%85.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,269.824,817.105,417.496,075.576,796.327,585.098,029.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,488.394,530.944,573.48
Year 2 PV (M)4,703.364,792.954,883.38
Year 3 PV (M)4,914.775,055.855,199.61
Year 4 PV (M)5,122.655,319.655,522.29
Year 5 PV (M)5,327.065,584.365,851.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)170,076.38178,291.14186,820.29
Equity Value (M)194,632.62203,574.89212,850.55
Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
Fair Value$228.18$238.67$249.54
Upside / Downside178.27%191.06%204.32%

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