Definitive Analysis
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Athene Holding Ltd. 7.250% Fixe (ATHS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.02 - $159.79$134.82
Multi-Stage$176.11 - $193.64$184.71
Blended Fair Value$159.76
Current Price$25.56
Upside525.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.225.267.130.690.470.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---57.88%-26.20%931.21%48.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.80%20.80%28.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,203.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,750.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)640.60400.38240.23
Cash Retained (M)2,750.002,750.002,750.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-640.60-400.38-240.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,109.402,349.632,509.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.81203.81203.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.3511.5312.31
LTM Dividend per Share2.222.222.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.3511.5312.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5713.7514.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$111.02$134.82$159.79
Upside / Downside334.36%427.46%525.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,203.003,170.973,139.263,107.873,076.793,046.023,137.40
Payout Ratio14.14%29.31%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)453.00929.551,396.521,854.072,302.322,741.422,902.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)843.43852.03860.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,149.731,173.321,197.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,384.991,427.831,471.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,560.491,625.171,691.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,685.951,773.751,865.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,268.1330,792.1832,379.08
Equity Value (M)35,892.7237,644.2739,465.38
Shares Outstanding (M)203.81203.81203.81
Fair Value$176.11$184.71$193.64
Upside / Downside589.02%622.64%657.60%

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