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Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.52 - $18.02$15.21
Multi-Stage$20.50 - $22.50$21.48
Blended Fair Value$18.34
Current Price$7.93
Upside131.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.020.000.000.000.001.701.571.42
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%8.17%10.82%22.70%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%31.35%26.62%25.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.7330.4618.28
Cash Retained (M)155.46155.46155.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.73-30.46-18.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.72125.00137.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.46137.46137.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.911.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.911.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.52$15.21$18.02
Upside / Downside57.91%91.76%127.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.67241.24238.82236.43234.07231.73238.68
Payout Ratio36.20%46.96%57.72%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.21113.29137.85161.91185.48208.56220.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)102.79103.84104.89
Year 2 PV (M)113.49115.82118.17
Year 3 PV (M)120.95124.69128.51
Year 4 PV (M)125.72130.93136.30
Year 5 PV (M)128.26134.94141.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,226.612,342.552,463.28
Equity Value (M)2,817.812,952.763,093.03
Shares Outstanding (M)137.46137.46137.46
Fair Value$20.50$21.48$22.50
Upside / Downside158.50%170.88%183.74%

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