Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (603707.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.85 - $78.76$73.81
Multi-Stage$18.35 - $20.11$19.22
Blended Fair Value$46.51
Current Price$10.36
Upside348.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.20%18.15%0.130.150.140.120.160.060.040.000.020.02
YoY Growth---14.20%9.63%18.20%-26.59%159.54%37.68%2,334.10%-92.09%20.51%-21.73%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.35%0.85%0.48%0.67%0.27%0.34%0.02%0.83%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)649.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)449.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.9781.2348.74
Cash Retained (M)449.61449.61449.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.97-81.23-48.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)319.65368.38400.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,640.801,640.801,640.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.85$73.81$78.76
Upside / Downside545.29%612.48%660.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)649.83692.07737.05784.96835.98890.32917.03
Payout Ratio30.81%42.65%54.49%66.32%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.22295.16401.59520.62653.42801.29848.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)277.82280.45283.08
Year 2 PV (M)355.80362.57369.41
Year 3 PV (M)434.15446.62459.32
Year 4 PV (M)512.89532.62552.90
Year 5 PV (M)592.01620.61650.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,936.7629,286.1230,687.12
Equity Value (M)30,109.4431,528.9933,002.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,640.801,640.801,640.80
Fair Value$18.35$19.22$20.11
Upside / Downside77.13%85.48%94.15%

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