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Mondelez International, Inc. (0R0G.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.14 - $167.49$96.54
Multi-Stage$45.51 - $49.60$47.52
Blended Fair Value$72.03
Current Price$62.47
Upside15.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.78%9.32%1.791.651.511.391.281.181.040.910.830.77
YoY Growth--8.75%8.82%8.71%8.82%8.82%13.47%13.44%9.51%8.53%4.56%
Dividend Yield--2.64%2.36%2.17%2.22%2.19%2.35%2.08%2.19%1.94%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,531.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,469.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,062.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)706.20441.38264.83
Cash Retained (M)1,062.001,062.001,062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-706.20-441.38-264.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.80620.63797.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,311.881,311.881,311.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.470.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.470.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.152.362.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.14$96.54$167.49
Upside / Downside1.07%54.54%168.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,531.003,760.524,004.954,265.274,542.514,837.784,982.91
Payout Ratio69.92%73.94%77.95%81.97%85.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,469.002,780.483,122.023,496.223,905.874,354.004,609.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,524.682,548.612,572.54
Year 2 PV (M)2,574.002,623.032,672.51
Year 3 PV (M)2,617.322,692.452,769.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,654.982,757.092,862.11
Year 5 PV (M)2,687.322,817.112,951.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,651.7148,905.0151,244.54
Equity Value (M)59,710.0162,343.2965,072.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,311.881,311.881,311.88
Fair Value$45.51$47.52$49.60
Upside / Downside-27.14%-23.93%-20.60%

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