Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.30 - $466.70$257.55
Multi-Stage$112.02 - $122.52$117.17
Blended Fair Value$187.36
Current Price$262.33
Upside-28.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.56%7.34%0.810.780.740.700.660.620.580.540.490.44
YoY Growth--3.68%5.36%5.87%6.24%6.65%7.13%7.67%9.22%10.49%11.34%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.20%0.21%0.17%0.23%0.41%0.52%0.61%0.60%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)431.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.3461.4636.88
Cash Retained (M)431.00431.00431.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.34-61.46-36.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)332.66369.54394.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.0573.0573.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.555.065.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.555.065.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.385.896.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Fair Value$165.30$257.55$466.70
Upside / Downside-36.99%-1.82%77.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.70522.98556.25591.64629.28669.31689.39
Payout Ratio12.34%27.88%43.41%58.94%74.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.70145.79241.45348.70468.62602.38637.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Year 1 PV (M)132.74134.00135.26
Year 2 PV (M)200.18204.00207.85
Year 3 PV (M)263.23270.79278.50
Year 4 PV (M)322.10334.50347.26
Year 5 PV (M)376.99395.22414.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,887.907,221.037,566.93
Equity Value (M)8,183.138,559.548,949.96
Shares Outstanding (M)73.0573.0573.05
Fair Value$112.02$117.17$122.52
Upside / Downside-57.30%-55.33%-53.30%

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