Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$405.45 - $1,066.47$618.37
Multi-Stage$302.68 - $331.35$316.75
Blended Fair Value$467.56
Current Price$137.09
Upside241.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.530.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.5315.339.20
Cash Retained (M)113.34113.34113.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.53-15.33-9.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.8198.01104.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.0115.3316.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$405.45$618.37$1,066.47
Upside / Downside195.75%351.07%677.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.63129.78137.34145.34153.81162.77167.65
Payout Ratio7.58%24.06%40.55%57.03%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.2931.2355.6982.89113.07146.49155.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5228.7929.07
Year 2 PV (M)46.4647.3548.25
Year 3 PV (M)63.1664.9866.84
Year 4 PV (M)78.7081.7484.88
Year 5 PV (M)93.1297.65102.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,809.111,897.071,988.41
Equity Value (M)2,119.072,217.582,319.79
Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
Fair Value$302.68$316.75$331.35
Upside / Downside120.79%131.05%141.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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