DDM Analysis: UMG.AS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.10 - $30.77	$25.08
Multi-Stage	$43.56 - $47.94	$45.71
Blended Fair Value	$35.39
Current Price	$27.48
Upside	28.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	-1.42%	0.00%	0.50	0.50	0.43	0.42	0.15	0.54	0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.43%	16.42%	1.66%	177.39%	-71.76%	2.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.03%	1.94%	1.91%	1.70%	0.61%	2.15%	2.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,867.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,285.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	830.40	519.00	311.40
Cash Retained (M)	2,285.00	2,285.00	2,285.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-830.40	-519.00	-311.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,454.60	1,766.00	1,973.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,858.89	1,858.89	1,858.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.78	0.95	1.06
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.78	0.95	1.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.79	1.95	2.07
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$20.10	$25.08	$30.77
Upside / Downside	-26.87%	-8.73%	11.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,152.00	4,110.48	4,069.38	4,028.68	3,988.39	3,948.51	4,066.97
Payout Ratio	44.97%	53.97%	62.98%	71.99%	80.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,867.00	2,218.55	2,562.88	2,900.11	3,230.33	3,553.66	3,761.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,057.96	2,078.96	2,099.96
Year 2 PV (M)	2,205.29	2,250.53	2,296.22
Year 3 PV (M)	2,314.83	2,386.42	2,459.47
Year 4 PV (M)	2,391.78	2,490.91	2,593.08
Year 5 PV (M)	2,440.72	2,567.82	2,700.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69,564.08	73,186.44	76,958.15
Equity Value (M)	80,974.66	84,961.07	89,107.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,858.89	1,858.89	1,858.89
Fair Value	$43.56	$45.71	$47.94
Upside / Downside	58.52%	66.32%	74.44%

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Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG.AS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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