DDM Analysis: SMKM.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.82 - $23.81	$20.27
Multi-Stage	$25.07 - $27.52	$26.27
Blended Fair Value	$23.27
Current Price	$76.00
Upside	-69.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.50	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.02%	2.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,225.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	626.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,599.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	645.17	403.23	241.94
Cash Retained (M)	2,599.35	2,599.35	2,599.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-645.17	-403.23	-241.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,954.18	2,196.12	2,357.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.75	1.88
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.75	1.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.06	2.25	2.38
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$16.82	$20.27	$23.81
Upside / Downside	-77.87%	-73.32%	-68.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,225.85	3,193.59	3,161.66	3,130.04	3,098.74	3,067.75	3,159.79
Payout Ratio	19.42%	33.54%	47.65%	61.77%	75.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	626.50	1,071.03	1,506.62	1,933.38	2,351.46	2,760.98	2,922.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	963.83	973.67	983.50
Year 2 PV (M)	1,220.11	1,245.14	1,270.42
Year 3 PV (M)	1,409.00	1,452.58	1,497.04
Year 4 PV (M)	1,542.16	1,606.08	1,671.96
Year 5 PV (M)	1,629.50	1,714.35	1,802.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,642.93	25,926.15	27,262.27
Equity Value (M)	31,407.54	32,917.96	34,487.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
Fair Value	$25.07	$26.27	$27.52
Upside / Downside	-67.02%	-65.43%	-63.78%

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0R40.L	Rai Way S.p.A.	6.03%	$0.33	99.60%
3600.HK	Modern Dental Group Limited	6.03%	$0.32	34.31%
003460.KS	Yuhwa Securities co.,ltd.	6.02%	$162.45	83.00%
298540.KQ	The Nature Holdings Co., Ltd.	6.02%	$521.44	76.58%
6263.TWO	Planet Technology Corporation	6.02%	$7.86	95.87%
NZX.NZ	NZX Limited	6.02%	$0.09	77.46%
WLMM3.SA	WLM Participações e Comércio de Máquinas e Veículos S.A.	6.02%	$1.23	40.06%
1760.HK	Intron Technology Holdings Limited	6.01%	$0.12	30.56%
5209.KL	Gas Malaysia Berhad	6.01%	$0.26	82.61%
ALLAN.PA	Lanson-BCC	6.01%	$1.96	26.09%
QAMC.QA	Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company Q.P.S.C.	6.00%	$0.10	74.36%
0237.HK	Safety Godown Company, Limited	5.99%	$0.12	71.07%
8986.T	Daiwa Securities Living Investment Corporation	5.99%	$6,829.90	63.32%
ASX.AX	ASX Limited	5.99%	$3.08	67.16%
MKP.TO	MCAN Mortgage Corporation	5.99%	$1.35	74.01%
0QMU.L	Compagnie Financière Richemont S.A.	5.98%	$6.91	67.79%
8924.TWO	O-TA Precision Industry Co., Ltd.	5.98%	$4.29	80.38%
FMTY14.MX	Fibra Mty, S.A.P.I. de C.V.	5.98%	$0.93	46.45%
HUMAN.BK	Humanica Public Company Limited	5.98%	$0.30	74.76%
603368.SS	Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd	5.97%	$1.06	53.83%
6069.HK	SY Holdings Group Limited	5.97%	$0.67	97.72%
ASII.JK	PT Astra International Tbk	5.97%	$405.75	50.28%
PXT.TO	Parex Resources Inc.	5.97%	$1.12	86.22%
SB	Safe Bulkers, Inc.	5.97%	$0.29	64.01%
1562.KL	Sports Toto Berhad	5.96%	$0.08	49.23%
8442.TW	WW Holding Inc.	5.96%	$4.19	72.79%
NTV.BK	Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited	5.96%	$1.37	66.11%
WLE.AX	WAM Leaders Limited	5.96%	$0.08	8.04%
094280.KS	Hyosung ITX Co. Ltd.	5.95%	$751.76	70.97%
O3P.DE	Österreichische Post AG	5.95%	$1.88	98.14%
PWO.DE	PWO AG	5.95%	$1.75	48.89%
0898.HK	Multifield International Holdings Limited	5.94%	$0.06	9.32%
1155.KL	Malayan Banking Berhad	5.94%	$0.62	72.18%
PORT3.SA	Wilson Sons S.A.	5.94%	$1.11	73.49%
009680.KS	Motonic Corporation	5.93%	$599.08	42.49%
3010.SR	Arabian Cement Company	5.93%	$1.29	91.83%
PGW.NZ	PGG Wrightson Limited	5.93%	$0.13	70.38%
0GX2.L	Neurones S.A.	5.92%	$2.49	61.25%
4012.SR	Thob Al Aseel Company	5.92%	$0.20	89.05%
9585.SR	Mulkia Investment Co.	5.92%	$2.01	37.97%
HEN.DE	Henkel AG & Co. KGaA	5.92%	$3.87	41.88%
KKP.BK	Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited	5.92%	$4.02	63.80%
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0RCW.L	Kid ASA	5.91%	$8.00	99.60%
ARSA.ME	Arsagera Asset Management	5.91%	$0.50	52.65%
DBM.TO	Doman Building Materials Group Ltd.	5.91%	$0.56	65.99%
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NXR-UN.TO	Nexus Industrial REIT	5.91%	$0.47	57.77%

Financial Statements

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PT Sumber Mas Konstruksi Tbk (SMKM.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener