DDM Analysis: SMBR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$241.13 - $380.42	$304.86
Multi-Stage	$462.67 - $509.53	$485.64
Blended Fair Value	$395.25
Current Price	$278.00
Upside	42.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.09%	-11.01%	2.45	1.91	0.00	0.00	0.62	1.91	3.69	6.52	8.91	8.26
YoY Growth	-	-	28.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-67.54%	-48.25%	-43.40%	-26.85%	7.86%	5.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.44%	0.79%	0.00%	0.00%	0.08%	0.97%	0.28%	0.16%	0.26%	2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	239,953.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25,850.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	214,102.79

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	47,990.72	29,994.20	17,996.52
Cash Retained (M)	214,102.79	214,102.79	214,102.79
(-) Cash Required (M)	-47,990.72	-29,994.20	-17,996.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	166,112.07	184,108.59	196,106.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,932.53	9,932.53	9,932.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.72	18.54	19.74
LTM Dividend per Share	2.60	2.60	2.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.72	18.54	19.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	19.33	21.14	22.35
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-1.10%	-0.10%	0.90%
Fair Value	$241.13	$304.86	$380.42
Upside / Downside	-13.26%	9.66%	36.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	239,953.60	239,718.80	239,484.24	239,249.91	239,015.81	238,781.94	245,945.40
Payout Ratio	10.77%	26.62%	42.46%	58.31%	74.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25,850.81	63,809.80	101,694.47	139,504.95	177,241.34	214,903.75	227,499.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-1.10%	-0.10%	0.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	59,132.73	59,730.62	60,328.52
Year 2 PV (M)	87,333.04	89,108.01	90,900.85
Year 3 PV (M)	111,022.61	114,424.43	117,895.03
Year 4 PV (M)	130,715.60	136,082.99	141,614.00
Year 5 PV (M)	146,874.70	154,451.63	162,338.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,060,378.11	4,269,843.80	4,487,866.35
Equity Value (M)	4,595,456.80	4,823,641.49	5,060,942.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,932.53	9,932.53	9,932.53
Fair Value	$462.67	$485.64	$509.53
Upside / Downside	66.43%	74.69%	83.28%

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3600.HK	Modern Dental Group Limited	6.03%	$0.32	34.31%
003460.KS	Yuhwa Securities co.,ltd.	6.02%	$162.45	83.00%
298540.KQ	The Nature Holdings Co., Ltd.	6.02%	$521.44	76.58%
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NZX.NZ	NZX Limited	6.02%	$0.09	77.46%
WLMM3.SA	WLM Participações e Comércio de Máquinas e Veículos S.A.	6.02%	$1.23	40.06%
1760.HK	Intron Technology Holdings Limited	6.01%	$0.12	30.56%
5209.KL	Gas Malaysia Berhad	6.01%	$0.26	82.61%
ALLAN.PA	Lanson-BCC	6.01%	$1.96	26.09%
QAMC.QA	Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company Q.P.S.C.	6.00%	$0.10	74.36%
0237.HK	Safety Godown Company, Limited	5.99%	$0.12	71.07%
8986.T	Daiwa Securities Living Investment Corporation	5.99%	$6,829.90	63.32%
ASX.AX	ASX Limited	5.99%	$3.08	67.16%
MKP.TO	MCAN Mortgage Corporation	5.99%	$1.35	74.01%
0QMU.L	Compagnie Financière Richemont S.A.	5.98%	$6.91	67.79%
8924.TWO	O-TA Precision Industry Co., Ltd.	5.98%	$4.29	80.38%
FMTY14.MX	Fibra Mty, S.A.P.I. de C.V.	5.98%	$0.93	46.45%
HUMAN.BK	Humanica Public Company Limited	5.98%	$0.30	74.76%
603368.SS	Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd	5.97%	$1.06	53.83%
6069.HK	SY Holdings Group Limited	5.97%	$0.67	97.72%
ASII.JK	PT Astra International Tbk	5.97%	$405.75	50.28%
PXT.TO	Parex Resources Inc.	5.97%	$1.12	86.22%
SB	Safe Bulkers, Inc.	5.97%	$0.29	64.01%
1562.KL	Sports Toto Berhad	5.96%	$0.08	49.23%
8442.TW	WW Holding Inc.	5.96%	$4.19	72.79%
NTV.BK	Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited	5.96%	$1.37	66.11%
WLE.AX	WAM Leaders Limited	5.96%	$0.08	8.04%
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O3P.DE	Österreichische Post AG	5.95%	$1.88	98.14%
PWO.DE	PWO AG	5.95%	$1.75	48.89%
0898.HK	Multifield International Holdings Limited	5.94%	$0.06	9.32%
1155.KL	Malayan Banking Berhad	5.94%	$0.62	72.18%
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0RCW.L	Kid ASA	5.91%	$8.00	99.60%
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Financial Statements

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PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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