Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sena Development Public Company Limited (SENA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.75 - $4.37$3.49
Multi-Stage$6.39 - $7.03$6.70
Blended Fair Value$5.09
Current Price$1.95
Upside161.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.49%16.23%0.250.080.340.190.310.240.130.050.090.04
YoY Growth--214.33%-76.79%75.83%-37.69%28.16%88.25%137.39%-40.26%130.03%-28.49%
Dividend Yield--12.37%2.73%9.69%3.95%7.37%12.71%3.64%1.50%2.84%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)289.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.1348.2128.93
Cash Retained (M)96.6796.6796.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.13-48.21-28.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5448.4667.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,436.421,436.421,436.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Fair Value$2.75$3.49$4.37
Upside / Downside40.77%78.72%124.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385.67383.70381.74379.78377.84375.91387.19
Payout Ratio74.93%77.95%80.96%83.97%86.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)289.00299.08309.06318.92328.67338.32358.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)278.80281.64284.47
Year 2 PV (M)268.57274.05279.59
Year 3 PV (M)258.35266.30274.41
Year 4 PV (M)248.20258.43268.98
Year 5 PV (M)238.16250.50263.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,890.788,299.598,725.18
Equity Value (M)9,182.869,630.5010,095.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,436.421,436.421,436.42
Fair Value$6.39$6.70$7.03
Upside / Downside227.84%243.82%260.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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