DDM Analysis: PTPP.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$457.50 - $698.10	$570.19
Multi-Stage	$3,386.54 - $3,759.74	$3,569.22
Blended Fair Value	$2,069.70
Current Price	$438.00
Upside	372.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-42.73%	-17.46%	2.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.84	48.57	46.99	49.64	28.61	17.20
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-30.32%	3.36%	-5.34%	73.48%	66.34%	-15.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.47%	8.83%	2.18%	1.90%	0.86%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	333,901.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18,513.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	315,387.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	66,780.21	41,737.63	25,042.58
Cash Retained (M)	315,387.92	315,387.92	315,387.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-66,780.21	-41,737.63	-25,042.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	248,607.71	273,650.29	290,345.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,185.34	6,185.34	6,185.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	40.19	44.24	46.94
LTM Dividend per Share	2.99	2.99	2.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	40.19	44.24	46.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	43.19	47.23	49.93
WACC / Discount Rate	2.56%	2.56%	2.56%
Growth Rate	-6.28%	-5.28%	-4.28%
Fair Value	$457.50	$570.19	$698.10
Upside / Downside	4.45%	30.18%	59.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	333,901.06	316,260.04	299,551.05	283,724.84	268,734.78	254,536.70	262,172.80
Payout Ratio	5.54%	22.44%	39.33%	56.22%	73.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18,513.14	70,954.84	117,803.54	159,503.86	196,469.04	229,083.03	242,509.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.56%	2.56%	2.56%
Growth Rate	-6.28%	-5.28%	-4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	68,451.21	69,181.62	69,912.02
Year 2 PV (M)	109,636.87	111,989.10	114,366.30
Year 3 PV (M)	143,208.44	147,841.83	152,574.09
Year 4 PV (M)	170,173.00	177,553.38	185,171.26
Year 5 PV (M)	191,420.56	201,853.57	212,736.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	20,263,993.13	21,368,443.37	22,520,533.86
Equity Value (M)	20,946,883.21	22,076,862.87	23,255,294.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,185.34	6,185.34	6,185.34
Fair Value	$3,386.54	$3,569.22	$3,759.74
Upside / Downside	673.18%	714.89%	758.39%

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PT PP (Persero) Tbk (PTPP.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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