Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ninety One Group (N91.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.56 - $3.71$3.12
Multi-Stage$4.39 - $4.82$4.60
Blended Fair Value$3.86
Current Price$1.44
Upside168.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-10.23%0.00%0.120.130.150.140.060.210.160.140.130.00
YoY Growth---7.43%-11.06%5.25%129.50%-70.69%27.80%15.78%6.68%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.42%7.57%7.96%5.49%2.55%12.02%10.78%9.31%8.72%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)314.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.8039.2523.55
Cash Retained (M)139.50139.50139.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.80-39.25-23.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.70100.25115.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)884.36884.36884.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.56$3.12$3.71
Upside / Downside77.98%116.60%157.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)314.00310.86307.75304.67301.63298.61307.57
Payout Ratio55.57%62.46%69.34%76.23%83.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.50194.16213.41232.25250.70268.75284.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)176.55178.35180.16
Year 2 PV (M)176.46180.08183.74
Year 3 PV (M)174.63180.03185.54
Year 4 PV (M)171.40178.51185.83
Year 5 PV (M)167.09175.79184.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,017.893,175.043,338.67
Equity Value (M)3,884.024,067.804,258.78
Shares Outstanding (M)884.36884.36884.36
Fair Value$4.39$4.60$4.82
Upside / Downside204.99%219.42%234.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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