Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.53 - $333.40$216.04
Multi-Stage$107.83 - $117.76$112.71
Blended Fair Value$164.37
Current Price$72.43
Upside126.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.510.550.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--174.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.13%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3367.7040.62
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.33-67.70-40.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.57355.20382.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.576.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$149.53$216.04$333.40
Upside / Downside106.45%198.27%360.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.63576.84614.33654.26696.79742.08764.34
Payout Ratio21.92%35.54%49.15%62.77%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.73204.99301.96410.67532.24667.87707.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.04186.79188.55
Year 2 PV (M)246.05250.73255.46
Year 3 PV (M)302.06310.73319.57
Year 4 PV (M)353.38366.97380.95
Year 5 PV (M)400.28419.61439.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,286.076,589.696,904.93
Equity Value (M)7,772.888,124.538,489.15
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
Fair Value$107.83$112.71$117.76
Upside / Downside48.87%55.61%62.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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