Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Merchants Trust Plc (MRCH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.43 - $21.26$16.26
Multi-Stage$12.84 - $14.00$13.41
Blended Fair Value$14.83
Current Price$5.50
Upside169.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.86%5.57%0.290.270.240.230.210.200.190.180.180.18
YoY Growth--4.77%12.11%8.19%5.98%8.41%5.59%3.67%2.08%0.00%5.36%
Dividend Yield--5.17%5.06%4.14%3.95%4.88%3.70%3.96%3.69%3.89%4.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.5817.8610.72
Cash Retained (M)57.7157.7157.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.58-17.86-10.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.1339.8546.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)148.04148.04148.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Fair Value$12.43$16.26$21.26
Upside / Downside126.05%195.57%286.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.89149.42156.24163.38170.84178.65184.01
Payout Ratio59.61%65.69%71.77%77.85%83.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.1998.16112.14127.19143.38160.78170.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Year 1 PV (M)88.3889.2390.09
Year 2 PV (M)90.9192.6794.45
Year 3 PV (M)92.8495.5698.32
Year 4 PV (M)94.2497.93101.73
Year 5 PV (M)95.1599.83104.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,438.941,509.771,583.35
Equity Value (M)1,900.461,984.992,072.64
Shares Outstanding (M)148.04148.04148.04
Fair Value$12.84$13.41$14.00
Upside / Downside133.41%143.80%154.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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