DDM Analysis: LPGI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$210.94 - $287.20	$249.74
Multi-Stage	$324.21 - $356.60	$340.09
Blended Fair Value	$294.91
Current Price	$460.00
Upside	-35.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-30.14%	-10.66%	2.70	5.42	33.32	13.94	10.69	16.24	12.24	8.50	8.25	9.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.18%	-83.72%	138.95%	30.37%	-34.15%	32.65%	44.12%	3.00%	-8.31%	7.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.71%	1.42%	5.29%	2.76%	6.50%	8.90%	7.65%	4.25%	2.89%	3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	124,396.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17,997.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	106,399.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	24,879.36	15,549.60	9,329.76
Cash Retained (M)	106,399.19	106,399.19	106,399.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-24,879.36	-15,549.60	-9,329.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	81,519.84	90,849.59	97,069.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,000.00	3,000.00	3,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	27.17	30.28	32.36
LTM Dividend per Share	6.00	6.00	6.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	27.17	30.28	32.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	33.17	36.28	38.36
WACC / Discount Rate	10.66%	10.66%	10.66%
Growth Rate	-4.38%	-3.38%	-2.38%
Fair Value	$210.94	$249.74	$287.20
Upside / Downside	-54.14%	-45.71%	-37.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	124,396.79	120,194.86	116,134.86	112,212.01	108,421.66	104,759.34	107,902.12
Payout Ratio	14.47%	29.57%	44.68%	59.79%	74.89%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17,997.60	35,546.81	51,889.91	67,088.37	81,200.86	94,283.41	99,809.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.66%	10.66%	10.66%
Growth Rate	-4.38%	-3.38%	-2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	31,790.23	32,122.69	32,455.15
Year 2 PV (M)	41,502.01	42,374.59	43,256.25
Year 3 PV (M)	47,987.33	49,508.66	51,061.80
Year 4 PV (M)	51,943.72	54,150.92	56,427.72
Year 5 PV (M)	53,938.74	56,818.77	59,820.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	745,481.65	785,286.11	826,772.98
Equity Value (M)	972,643.69	1,020,261.74	1,069,794.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,000.00	3,000.00	3,000.00
Fair Value	$324.21	$340.09	$356.60
Upside / Downside	-29.52%	-26.07%	-22.48%

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Financial Statements

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PT Lippo General Insurance Tbk (LPGI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener