DDM Analysis: GSMF.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.99 - $25.43	$21.67
Multi-Stage	$28.78 - $31.62	$30.17
Blended Fair Value	$25.92
Current Price	$97.00
Upside	-73.28%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.85%	3.45%	0.29	0.24	0.26	0.42	0.28	0.26	0.25	0.25	0.27	0.33
YoY Growth	-	-	21.21%	-8.33%	-38.21%	49.40%	6.85%	5.80%	0.00%	-8.88%	-18.29%	62.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.54%	0.48%	0.46%	0.42%	0.23%	0.23%	0.22%	0.19%	0.24%	0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	39,826.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9,251.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30,575.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7,965.20	4,978.25	2,986.95
Cash Retained (M)	30,575.00	30,575.00	30,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7,965.20	-4,978.25	-2,986.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22,609.80	25,596.75	27,588.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14,230.40	14,230.40	14,230.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.59	1.80	1.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.65	0.65	0.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.59	1.80	1.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.24	2.45	2.59
WACC / Discount Rate	9.51%	9.51%	9.51%
Growth Rate	-2.60%	-1.60%	-0.60%
Fair Value	$17.99	$21.67	$25.43
Upside / Downside	-81.45%	-77.66%	-73.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	39,826.00	39,187.45	38,559.13	37,940.89	37,332.57	36,733.99	37,836.01
Payout Ratio	23.23%	36.58%	49.94%	63.29%	76.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9,251.00	14,335.88	19,255.32	24,013.33	28,613.81	33,060.59	34,998.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.51%	9.51%	9.51%
Growth Rate	-2.60%	-1.60%	-0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	12,957.33	13,090.37	13,223.40
Year 2 PV (M)	15,730.16	16,054.83	16,382.82
Year 3 PV (M)	17,730.70	18,282.46	18,845.56
Year 4 PV (M)	19,095.91	19,892.32	20,713.39
Year 5 PV (M)	19,941.90	20,986.88	22,075.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	324,045.80	341,026.30	358,711.29
Equity Value (M)	409,501.80	429,333.16	449,951.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	14,230.40	14,230.40	14,230.40
Fair Value	$28.78	$30.17	$31.62
Upside / Downside	-70.33%	-68.90%	-67.40%

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Financial Statements

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PT Equity Development Investment Tbk (GSMF.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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