DDM Analysis: FER.MC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.92 - $36.50	$30.50
Multi-Stage	$39.76 - $43.75	$41.72
Blended Fair Value	$36.11
Current Price	$45.26
Upside	-20.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.39%	-7.22%	0.18	0.19	0.18	0.04	0.17	0.33	0.33	0.30	0.32	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.41%	3.03%	325.81%	-74.59%	-48.74%	-0.83%	10.09%	-3.54%	-15.36%	-2.91%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.45%	0.57%	0.75%	0.16%	0.75%	1.23%	1.89%	1.59%	1.85%	1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,332.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,202.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	466.50	291.56	174.94
Cash Retained (M)	2,202.50	2,202.50	2,202.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-466.50	-291.56	-174.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,736.00	1,910.94	2,027.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	716.96	716.96	716.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.42	2.67	2.83
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.42	2.67	2.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.60	2.85	3.01
WACC / Discount Rate	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Fair Value	$24.92	$30.50	$36.50
Upside / Downside	-44.95%	-32.62%	-19.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,332.50	2,318.16	2,303.91	2,289.74	2,275.67	2,261.68	2,329.53
Payout Ratio	5.57%	22.46%	39.34%	56.23%	73.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	130.00	520.63	906.45	1,287.51	1,663.85	2,035.51	2,154.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	474.31	479.13	483.95
Year 2 PV (M)	752.33	767.70	783.23
Year 3 PV (M)	973.52	1,003.51	1,034.11
Year 4 PV (M)	1,146.15	1,193.46	1,242.23
Year 5 PV (M)	1,277.42	1,343.67	1,412.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	23,885.23	25,124.02	26,413.68
Equity Value (M)	28,508.95	29,911.49	31,369.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	716.96	716.96	716.96
Fair Value	$39.76	$41.72	$43.75
Upside / Downside	-12.14%	-7.82%	-3.33%

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Financial Statements

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Ferrovial SE (FER.MC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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