Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Falabella S.A. (FALABELLA.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56,692.16 - $66,824.29$62,609.61
Multi-Stage$270,982.01 - $298,254.90$284,356.66
Blended Fair Value$173,483.14
Current Price$4,950.00
Upside3,404.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.44%-10.41%23.773.60102.0237.0943.0684.7261.4485.7285.9078.68
YoY Growth--560.30%-96.47%175.04%-13.85%-49.17%37.89%-28.33%-0.21%9.18%10.26%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.14%5.58%1.47%1.32%4.49%1.22%1.48%1.55%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863,843.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221,686.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)642,157.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172,768.78107,980.4964,788.29
Cash Retained (M)642,157.70642,157.70642,157.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-172,768.78-107,980.49-64,788.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)469,388.92534,177.22577,369.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
LTM Dividend per Share88.3688.3688.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.46301.28318.50
WACC / Discount Rate-32.27%-32.27%-32.27%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$56,692.16$62,609.61$66,824.29
Upside / Downside1,045.30%1,164.84%1,249.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863,843.89897,587.42932,649.03969,080.231,006,934.501,046,267.441,077,655.46
Payout Ratio25.66%38.53%51.40%64.27%77.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221,686.19345,842.30479,359.75622,780.42776,674.28941,640.70996,831.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-32.27%-32.27%-32.27%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)505,728.25510,642.71515,557.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,025,037.521,045,056.091,065,268.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,947,386.922,004,712.102,063,151.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,551,365.103,691,433.133,835,604.14
Year 5 PV (M)6,296,231.966,608,156.556,932,323.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)666,526,111.07699,546,794.73733,863,415.43
Equity Value (M)679,851,860.82713,406,795.31748,275,319.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
Fair Value$270,982.01$284,356.66$298,254.90
Upside / Downside5,374.38%5,644.58%5,925.35%

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