Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$275.48 - $746.50$423.99
Multi-Stage$186.00 - $203.52$194.60
Blended Fair Value$309.29
Current Price$211.11
Upside46.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.15%-0.13%0.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.32
YoY Growth--0.19%-0.07%-0.19%-0.82%0.16%0.25%0.29%0.25%0.11%-1.45%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.24%0.27%0.36%0.36%0.31%0.35%0.49%0.53%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)299.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.8437.4022.44
Cash Retained (M)290.96290.96290.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.84-37.40-22.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)231.12253.56268.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8825.8825.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8010.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8010.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2510.1210.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$275.48$423.99$746.50
Upside / Downside30.49%100.84%253.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)299.22318.32338.64360.26383.25407.72419.95
Payout Ratio2.76%20.21%37.66%55.10%72.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2664.33127.52198.52278.06366.94388.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)58.5159.0659.62
Year 2 PV (M)105.48107.49109.52
Year 3 PV (M)149.33153.62158.00
Year 4 PV (M)190.23197.55205.08
Year 5 PV (M)228.31239.35250.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,081.494,278.854,483.77
Equity Value (M)4,813.345,035.925,266.79
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8825.8825.88
Fair Value$186.00$194.60$203.52
Upside / Downside-11.90%-7.82%-3.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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