DDM Analysis: ERIE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$436.21 - $2,383.28	$846.92
Multi-Stage	$265.30 - $290.12	$277.48
Blended Fair Value	$562.20
Current Price	$318.16
Upside	76.70%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.21%	7.20%	4.40	4.11	3.83	3.58	5.06	3.11	2.90	2.70	2.52	2.35
YoY Growth	-	-	7.14%	7.21%	7.25%	-29.35%	62.78%	7.14%	7.35%	7.19%	7.19%	7.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.05%	1.02%	1.66%	2.03%	2.29%	2.10%	1.62%	2.30%	2.06%	2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	647.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	250.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	397.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	129.60	81.00	48.60
Cash Retained (M)	397.90	397.90	397.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-129.60	-81.00	-48.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	268.31	316.90	349.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	53.93	53.93	53.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.98	5.88	6.48
LTM Dividend per Share	4.64	4.64	4.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.98	5.88	6.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	9.61	10.51	11.11
WACC / Discount Rate	7.53%	7.53%	7.53%
Growth Rate	5.21%	6.21%	7.21%
Fair Value	$436.21	$846.92	$2,383.28
Upside / Downside	37.10%	166.19%	649.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	647.98	688.25	731.03	776.46	824.71	875.97	902.25
Payout Ratio	38.59%	48.88%	59.16%	69.44%	79.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	250.08	336.38	432.45	539.15	657.45	788.37	834.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.53%	7.53%	7.53%
Growth Rate	5.21%	6.21%	7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)	309.87	312.82	315.76
Year 2 PV (M)	366.97	373.98	381.06
Year 3 PV (M)	421.46	433.59	445.96
Year 4 PV (M)	473.43	491.69	510.47
Year 5 PV (M)	522.97	548.30	574.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,212.34	12,803.83	13,418.02
Equity Value (M)	14,307.05	14,964.21	15,645.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	53.93	53.93	53.93
Fair Value	$265.30	$277.48	$290.12
Upside / Downside	-16.61%	-12.78%	-8.81%

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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener