DDM Analysis: COF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.11 - $49.34	$39.42
Multi-Stage	$37.96 - $41.35	$39.62
Blended Fair Value	$39.52
Current Price	$212.58
Upside	-81.41%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.36%	3.22%	1.95	1.95	1.99	2.40	0.96	1.57	1.62	1.63	1.70	1.71
YoY Growth	-	-	0.11%	-2.00%	-17.25%	149.57%	-38.91%	-2.59%	-0.90%	-3.94%	-0.49%	20.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.09%	1.34%	2.07%	1.83%	0.76%	3.12%	1.91%	1.70%	1.96%	2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,416.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,240.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	283.20	177.00	106.20
Cash Retained (M)	176.00	176.00	176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-283.20	-177.00	-106.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-107.20	-1.00	69.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	478.13	478.13	478.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.22	0.00	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	2.59	2.59	2.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.22	0.00	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.37	2.59	2.74
WACC / Discount Rate	10.15%	10.15%	10.15%
Growth Rate	2.36%	3.36%	4.36%
Fair Value	$31.11	$39.42	$49.34
Upside / Downside	-85.36%	-81.46%	-76.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,416.00	1,463.54	1,512.68	1,563.47	1,615.97	1,670.23	1,720.34
Payout Ratio	87.57%	88.06%	88.54%	89.03%	89.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,240.00	1,288.75	1,339.37	1,391.93	1,446.52	1,503.21	1,591.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.15%	10.15%	10.15%
Growth Rate	2.36%	3.36%	4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,158.65	1,169.97	1,181.29
Year 2 PV (M)	1,082.60	1,103.86	1,125.32
Year 3 PV (M)	1,011.51	1,041.45	1,071.97
Year 4 PV (M)	945.06	982.54	1,021.12
Year 5 PV (M)	882.96	926.94	972.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,068.59	13,719.56	14,396.23
Equity Value (M)	18,149.37	18,944.31	19,768.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	478.13	478.13	478.13
Fair Value	$37.96	$39.62	$41.35
Upside / Downside	-82.14%	-81.36%	-80.55%

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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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