DDM Analysis: CNI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$112.58 - $223.04	$155.91
Multi-Stage	$173.39 - $190.30	$181.68
Blended Fair Value	$168.80
Current Price	$131.26
Upside	28.60%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.73%	10.08%	3.41	3.30	3.20	2.77	2.61	2.46	2.13	1.98	1.85	1.59
YoY Growth	-	-	3.24%	3.34%	15.17%	6.49%	5.83%	15.83%	7.59%	6.90%	16.37%	21.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.43%	1.86%	2.00%	1.65%	1.79%	2.26%	1.76%	2.10%	1.88%	1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,296.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,176.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,120.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	859.36	537.10	322.26
Cash Retained (M)	2,120.80	2,120.80	2,120.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-859.36	-537.10	-322.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,261.44	1,583.70	1,798.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	627.05	627.05	627.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.01	2.53	2.87
LTM Dividend per Share	3.47	3.47	3.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.01	2.53	2.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.48	6.00	6.34
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	1.46%	2.46%	3.46%
Fair Value	$112.58	$155.91	$223.04
Upside / Downside	-14.23%	18.78%	69.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,296.80	4,402.39	4,510.58	4,621.43	4,735.00	4,851.36	4,996.90
Payout Ratio	50.64%	58.51%	66.39%	74.26%	82.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,176.00	2,576.01	2,994.37	3,431.73	3,888.78	4,366.22	4,622.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	1.46%	2.46%	3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,397.49	2,421.12	2,444.75
Year 2 PV (M)	2,593.71	2,645.10	2,696.98
Year 3 PV (M)	2,766.55	2,849.17	2,933.41
Year 4 PV (M)	2,917.75	3,034.49	3,154.71
Year 5 PV (M)	3,048.94	3,202.19	3,361.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	94,997.59	99,772.44	104,737.38
Equity Value (M)	108,722.03	113,924.50	119,328.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	627.05	627.05	627.05
Fair Value	$173.39	$181.68	$190.30
Upside / Downside	32.09%	38.41%	44.98%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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