Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.73 - $614.07$326.87
Multi-Stage$140.21 - $153.36$146.67
Blended Fair Value$236.77
Current Price$106.91
Upside121.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.91%2.46%1.181.201.120.530.541.021.041.040.980.96
YoY Growth---1.70%7.45%109.81%-0.91%-47.44%-1.29%0.13%5.35%2.14%3.87%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.97%0.95%0.38%0.50%1.67%1.32%1.29%1.57%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4147.7628.66
Cash Retained (M)328.87328.87328.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.41-47.76-28.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.45281.11300.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.9646.9646.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.385.996.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.385.996.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.517.127.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$206.73$326.87$614.07
Upside / Downside93.37%205.74%474.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.07406.10431.64458.78487.64518.31533.86
Payout Ratio13.93%29.14%44.36%59.57%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.20118.34191.45273.30364.68466.48493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)107.94108.96109.99
Year 2 PV (M)159.28162.32165.39
Year 3 PV (M)207.39213.35219.43
Year 4 PV (M)252.41262.14272.14
Year 5 PV (M)294.49308.74323.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,562.945,832.186,111.75
Equity Value (M)6,584.456,887.707,202.24
Shares Outstanding (M)46.9646.9646.96
Fair Value$140.21$146.67$153.36
Upside / Downside31.15%37.19%43.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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